Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
