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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant repercussions" last August in case Russia's president continued blocking truce negotiations, he eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, these major energy companies. This decision significantly affected Putin's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was created by American and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's plan would in practice benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan actually weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will please the ruler. But, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a charred area of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it no longer functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his increasing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in status the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Putin a clear path to the capital should he subsequently decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the plan imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every extremist ideology and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should the international community trust Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only block the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of alliance members, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not